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Is it useful to talk to a dictator? Belarusian opposition have doubts

February 13, 2026

Following her December 2025 release from a Belarusian prison through US-negotiated efforts, prominent opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava has sparked controversy by advocating for dialogue with dictator Lukashenka and reduced EU sanctions. Kalesnikava, who became a key leader during the 2020 Belarus protests after her campaign leader Viktor Babariko was detained, spent years imprisoned under harsh conditions after tearing up her passport to resist deportation. Her current stance—arguing that engagement and sanctions relief could secure humanitarian concessions like prisoner releases—directly contradicts the established position of exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanovskaya and EU policy, which maintains strict isolation of the regime.

Who is affected

  • Maria Kalesnikava (released political prisoner advocating new approach)
  • Viktor Babariko and his son Eduard (imprisoned, released alongside Kalesnikava)
  • Sviatlana Tsikhanovskaya (opposition leader with opposing views)
  • Over 1,100 political prisoners still detained in Belarus, including Valiantsin Stefanovic, Marfa Rabkova, and Nasta Lojka
  • Belarusian citizens facing restricted travel and visa limitations
  • Belarusian opposition figures in exile (Pavel Latushko, Anatoly Lebedko, Nikolai Dedok, Vladimir Zhigar, Andrei Strizhak)
  • EU politicians and Lithuanian government officials
  • Detainees at Akrescina detention center facing torture-like conditions
  • Belarusian democratic forces in exile
  • Human rights organizations including Viasna

What action is being taken

  • Human rights movement Viasna is documenting and describing horrible detention conditions at Akrescina state temporary detention center
  • Human Rights Watch is supporting the latest release of political prisoners
  • Belarusian opposition media Belsat is publishing opinions from Belarusians in exile
  • Various commentators are expressing their views in social media channels
  • The Lukashenka regime is continuing to imprison opponents for political dissent

Why it matters

  • This dispute represents a fundamental split in strategy for addressing authoritarianism in Belarus at a critical moment when the country remains aligned with Russia during its war on Ukraine. The debate touches on whether engagement with dictators can produce humanitarian results or merely legitimizes repression, a question with implications beyond Belarus for how democracies interact with authoritarian regimes globally. With over 1,100 political prisoners still suffering under documented torture-like conditions, the stakes involve both immediate human lives and long-term prospects for democratic change in Belarus. The disagreement also highlights tensions between the pragmatic approach of securing individual releases versus maintaining pressure for systemic change, particularly as Europe faces ongoing hybrid attacks from Belarus.

What's next

  • No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: Global Voices