War, bloodshed, and legitimacy: Is Iran witnessing another internal coup?

February 12, 2026

Following recent mass killings and Israeli airstrikes that killed high-ranking Iranian military leaders, political insiders are describing an internal "systemic coup" or power consolidation within Iran's leadership structure. This phenomenon echoes historical patterns from the late 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, when succession concerns and internal power struggles led to political reshuffling, mass executions, and the removal of Ayatollah Montazeri as Khomeini's designated successor. Today's situation unfolds amid growing public mistrust, an aging Supreme Leader, ongoing executions and repression, and questions about intelligence failures and military corruption.

Who is affected

The Iranian general population experiencing grief, loss, and vulnerability
High-ranking Iranian military leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes
Political prisoners facing ongoing executions
Reformist leaders including Mir Hossein Mousavi (still under house arrest) and Mehdi Karroubi (recently released from house arrest)
Conservative forces, revolutionary elements, and those close to Iran's leadership who are allegedly orchestrating the internal consolidation
Political insiders and observers monitoring the systemic changes
Ali Shamkhani and others named in online debates about intelligence errors and corruption

What action is being taken

Executions continue within Iran
Reports of repression are ongoing
Elite restructuring is taking place under public mistrust
Official institutions are denying allegations of wrongdoing
Hassan Abbasi is making statements regarding supposed historical meetings to discredit reformist opponents
The system is tightening internally in response to stress

Why it matters

This matters because Iran appears to be at a critical inflection point where multiple crises—military confrontation, succession uncertainty, legitimacy challenges, and social fracture—are converging simultaneously. The historical pattern shows that during such periods of extreme stress, the Islamic Republic doesn't change through open competition but rather reshapes itself through internal consolidation, sometimes with devastating consequences like the 1988 mass executions. The current situation is particularly significant because unlike the revolutionary period, today's restructuring occurs amid widespread public disillusionment and mistrust, with an aging Supreme Leader and unclear succession mechanisms, potentially determining whether the system reshapes itself proactively or is reshaped by events beyond its control.

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: Global Voices