Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East's reshuffling is not yet done

April 9, 2026

The United States and Iran are engaged in ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan following a war that began when the US and Israel conducted strikes on February 28th that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family members. While both sides have incentives to end the conflict—Trump needs an exit before upcoming diplomatic events and midterm elections, and Iran requires time to recover from substantial damage—the negotiations face severe obstacles including zero trust between parties and vastly different demands. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled 20% of global oil and gas shipments, has given it unexpected strategic leverage over the world economy that it now seeks to institutionalize.

Who is affected

Iranian civilians living under internet blackout, enduring weeks of airstrikes and economic standstill
Mojtaba Khamenei (new Supreme Leader), reportedly injured in the attack that killed his parents, sister, wife, and son
Lebanese civilians, with over 300 killed on the first day of ceasefire and thousands forced from homes in southern Lebanon
Gaza civilians whose territory has been turned to rubble
Gulf Arab states whose economies and modernization strategies have been damaged by Iranian attacks
Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, currently on trial in New York
Global shipping industry and countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, gas, fertilizer, and semiconductors
Wealthy Arab monarchies of the Gulf whose business, tourism, and air travel hubs have suffered lasting damage

What action is being taken

Pakistani intermediaries are shuttling between US and Iranian delegations in ceasefire negotiations
Iran is requiring ships to obtain permission from its armed forces to transit the Strait of Hormuz and charging millions of dollars in tolls
The Houthis in Yemen are using firepower to block Bab al-Mandab strait at the southern Red Sea
Saudi Arabia is pumping oil through a pipeline to Red Sea ports to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz
Israel is conducting airstrikes on Lebanon
China is pushing Iran to agree to and maintain ceasefire talks
Iran is launching missiles and drones and producing AI videos lampooning Trump on social media

Why it matters

This conflict is reshuffling Middle Eastern geopolitics with potentially long-lasting global consequences. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world's oil and gas previously transited daily—has proven to be a cheaper and more effective deterrent than nuclear weapons, giving Iran unexpected strategic leverage over the global economy. The war has exposed limitations in US strategic planning and demonstrated that tactical military victories do not automatically translate into strategic gains, as Iran's regime remains intact despite suffering massive damage. Gulf Arab states are reassessing their traditional reliance on US security guarantees and looking to diversify alliances, while China and Russia observe opportunities to exploit gaps in American foreign policy. The conflict's failure to achieve regime change in Iran, combined with Israel's aggressive expansion in Lebanon and Gaza, is fundamentally altering regional power dynamics and alliance structures in ways that will affect global trade, energy markets, and security arrangements for years to come.

What's next

Trump has a state visit from King Charles scheduled for later this month
Trump has a summit with China's President Xi Jinping scheduled for May
US midterm elections are scheduled for November
Lebanon has requested direct talks with Israel, which Netanyahu has agreed to while ordering more airstrikes

Read full article from source: BBC