How Trump and the oil markets move in sync: a tango in five charts

March 28, 2026

Oil prices have become increasingly volatile amid US and Israeli military strikes on Iran that began on February 28, with crude jumping from around $72 per barrel to a peak of $118 before settling near $112. President Trump's social media posts and statements about the conflict initially triggered significant market reactions, as investors attempted to gauge whether hostilities would escalate or end. However, traders are growing skeptical of Trump's comments, particularly after he announced delayed strikes and claimed productive negotiations while Iran remained silent and oil prices continued rising.

Who is affected

Investors and traders in oil and stock markets
Donald Trump (US President)
Iran and Tehran leadership
Israel (US partner in strikes)
Market analysts and investment professionals (Jonathan Raymond at Quilter Cheviot, Brian Szytel at Bahnsen Group, Jane Foley at Rabobank, Russ Mould at AJ Bell)
General consumers impacted by oil price fluctuations

What action is being taken

US and Israel are conducting strikes on Iran (ongoing programme mentioned as current)
Oil is trading at fluctuating prices (sitting at just below $112 as of Friday afternoon in the article)
Investors are attempting to price uncertainty and manage event risk in real time
Markets are reacting (though with diminishing intensity) to Trump's statements

Why it matters

Rising oil prices carry significant economic risks that extend beyond energy markets, serving as indicators of broader geopolitical and economic instability. The conflict creates genuine uncertainty for global markets, with energy prices acting as a barometer for escalation or de-escalation of hostilities. The growing skepticism toward presidential communications undermines market confidence and complicates investment decisions during a critical period of international conflict. When investors can no longer reliably interpret signals from leadership, it increases volatility and makes it harder to manage risk effectively in an already unstable situation.

What's next

Trump announced he was delaying military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until at least April 6

Read full article from source: BBC