Jeremy Bowen: Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn't working

March 29, 2026

President Trump faces a critical decision point in his month-old war against Iran, as the conflict has not produced the quick victory he anticipated when U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader. Despite significant Iranian casualties and leadership losses, the regime has proven resilient and is effectively using its geographical advantage by closing the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off approximately 20% of global oil supplies and destabilizing world markets. Trump's apparent lack of strategic planning contrasts sharply with his predecessors' careful deliberations about avoiding war with Iran, and his options now include declaring an unconvincing victory, negotiating a deal, or escalating military action.

Who is affected

US President Donald Trump and his inner circle of advisers
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel's military establishment
The Iranian regime and its leadership in Tehran
Iranian civilians (1,464 killed according to HRANA)
Iranian protesters (thousands killed in January by government forces)
Gulf Arab neighbors of Iran
US military personnel at bases in the region
Hezbollah in Lebanon
Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank
The Houthis in Yemen
Venezuela's former President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores (now imprisoned in New York)
Deputy Delcy Rodríguez (now Venezuela's president)
Global financial markets and the world economy
Saudi Arabia (potentially losing western sea route for oil exports)
Europe and Asia (trade routes threatened)
US allies in Europe, Asia, and the Gulf
More than 4,000 US Marines on ships heading to the Gulf
Paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne on standby

What action is being taken

The US and Israel are conducting bombing campaigns against Iran
Iran is attacking Gulf Arab neighbors, American bases, and Israel
Iran is enforcing closure of the Strait of Hormuz using drones launched from Iran's mountainous interior
The Iranian government is broadcasting warnings to potential protesters
Contacts between the US and Iran are taking place via mediation by Pakistan and others
Israel is pressing ahead with its offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon
The US has more than 4,000 Marines on ships heading to the Gulf
Paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne are on standby
The US is discussing further military reinforcements

Why it matters

This conflict represents a critical test of American power and strategic planning at a moment when the U.S. faces competition from China for global dominance. The war's outcome could mark a turning point in American influence, potentially comparable to how the 1956 Suez Crisis signaled the end of British imperial dominance in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already cut off roughly 20% of world oil supplies, creating a global economic crisis that could worsen significantly if the Houthis escalate attacks on the Bab al Mandab strait and Red Sea shipping routes. The conflict demonstrates the limits of overwhelming military superiority against a determined adversary willing to accept massive casualties for survival, and it reveals how geographical advantages can offset conventional military power. Trump's lack of strategic planning—contrasting with decades of careful deliberation by previous administrations who chose containment over war—risks repeating America's painful experiences in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, where military dominance did not translate into strategic victory.

What's next

Trump has postponed twice his threat to destroy Iran's power network
Trump must choose between declaring an unconvincing victory, negotiating a deal with Iran, or escalating the war
The Americans may try to capture islands in the Gulf, including Kharg island (Iran's main oil terminal), which would involve challenging and dangerous amphibious landings
The White House has threatened that if Iran doesn't accept defeat, "President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before"
The Houthis in Yemen may resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, potentially escalating to attack the Bab al Mandab strait
Unless both sides make compromises toward unexplored middle ground, a negotiated deal appears unlikely given that each side's demands are unacceptable to the other

Read full article from source: BBC