Trump's bet on Iranian regime change could be his biggest gamble yet

March 1, 2026

President Trump has launched a major military operation against Iran, killing the country's supreme leader in an air campaign aimed at eliminating Iran's nuclear program and achieving regime change. This represents a significant gamble that could either become a historic victory or seriously damage Trump's presidency and his party's electoral prospects in the upcoming midterm elections. The strike has triggered Iranian retaliation against US allies across the region and sparked fierce political opposition from Democrats who accuse Trump of launching an unauthorized war without congressional approval or clear strategy.

Who is affected

US President Donald Trump and his administration
Iran's supreme leader (killed in the strike) and the Iranian regime
US military personnel deployed to the region
US allies in the Middle East including Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar (targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes)
Israeli forces (participated in the bombing)
Congressional Republicans and Democrats
Trump's MAGA base and the broader American public
Republican candidates in the November midterm elections
Vice President JD Vance and senior administration officials
Proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah

What action is being taken

The US and Israel are conducting ongoing bombing campaigns in Iran under "Operation Epic Fury"
Iranian forces are launching retaliatory strikes against US allies in the region
House Democrats are holding a meeting on Sunday evening to discuss their response
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democrats are resuming their push to hold a vote on a resolution reining in Trump's war powers in Iran next week
Trump is monitoring the attack with top advisers at Mar-a-Lago

Why it matters

This military operation represents a pivotal moment that could fundamentally reshape the Middle East and define Trump's presidential legacy. The decision to use force against Iran directly contradicts Trump's core campaign promise to end overseas military interventions, potentially alienating his political base at a critical time when his approval ratings are already declining due to domestic concerns. The operation's success or failure will have far-reaching consequences for US foreign policy, regional stability, the global economy, and Republican electoral prospects in the midterm elections. Additionally, Trump's lack of congressional authorization and failure to build public support beforehand has created a political crisis at home while US forces engage in combat abroad, forcing him to fight simultaneous military and political battles.

What's next

The heavy and pinpoint bombing will continue uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary, according to Trump
House Democrats will vote on a resolution to rein in Trump's war powers in Iran next week
Primary elections will begin ahead of November's midterm elections
The world is waiting to see what further actions the Iranian regime will take following the death of its supreme leader

Read full article from source: BBC