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Trump's nuclear arms control push with Russia hinges on China

February 5, 2026

The New START arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired on Thursday, eliminating restrictions on nuclear weapons programs between the world's two largest nuclear powers for the first time this century. President Trump has stated he wants to negotiate a superior replacement agreement that would include China, though experts warn such a deal could take years due to complex verification requirements and China's refusal to participate until US and Russian arsenals are reduced. While US and Russian negotiators are reportedly close to a temporary agreement to maintain existing restrictions, former officials emphasize this would lack the comprehensive transparency and inspection mechanisms that typically require years to establish.

Who is affected

  • The United States and Russia (holding nearly 90% of global nuclear warheads)
  • China (positioned as necessary party to future negotiations)
  • Western alliance/NATO members (facing potential nuclear weapons buildup)
  • Ukraine (caught in the intersection of arms control and ongoing war)
  • Global population (exposed to increased nuclear risk)
  • Former Obama administration negotiators and current arms control experts
  • Trump's negotiating team (Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio)

What action is being taken

  • US and Russian negotiators are appearing to near a deal to abide by expired New START restrictions
  • Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are leading arms control negotiations with Russia during talks in Abu Dhabi on the Ukraine war
  • White House officials are discussing a two-track approach with separate negotiations between the US and Moscow and Beijing
  • Russia has fired Oreshnik missiles into Ukraine twice since starting the war

Why it matters

  • This development marks a critical turning point in global nuclear security, ending over five decades of continuous bilateral nuclear arms control between the world's largest nuclear powers. The expiration removes essential guardrails including caps on deployed strategic nuclear warheads (previously limited to 1,550), on-site inspections, and data sharing mechanisms that enabled mutual monitoring. With Russia and China drawing closer amid the Ukraine conflict and signs of fracturing within the Western alliance, the absence of these restrictions raises serious concerns about a new nuclear arms race. The situation is further complicated by China's expanding nuclear arsenal (expected to reach 1,000 warheads by decade's end) and Russia's repeated threats to use unconventional weapons in response to NATO actions, creating an unpredictable and dangerous moment in international relations.

What's next

  • Trump will set out the path forward on nuclear arms control "on his own timeline" according to White House officials
  • Trump has called for Nuclear Experts to work on a "new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future"
  • Possible stopgap/temporary agreement between US and Russia to maintain expired restrictions (though verification measures remain uncertain)
  • Potential two-track negotiation approach with separate talks between US-Moscow and US-Beijing

Read full article from source: BBC