What Trump’s new study says about support for trans rights — and why experts are worried

September 4, 2026

A Trump administration study released by the Department of Health and Human Services claims that people who support transgender rights may be more likely to justify political violence, a conclusion that experts are calling biased pseudoscience with serious ethical problems. The research, conducted by scholars from Rutgers University, the Manhattan Institute, and the Network Contagion Research Institute, surveyed approximately 1,200 adults and attempted to link support for transgender people with what they term "left-wing authoritarianism" and anti-democratic attitudes. Democracy advocates and researchers are warning that this study appears designed to provide justification for government crackdowns on LGBTQ+ supporters and other Americans with progressive views, potentially labeling them as domestic terrorism threats.

Who is affected

Transgender people and the broader LGBTQ+ community
Americans who support transgender rights and LGBTQ+ equality
People with left-leaning political views
Medical professionals and organizations that provide or endorse gender-affirming care, including the World Professional Association of Transgender Health (WPATH), the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), and other major medical groups
Pro-democracy advocacy groups like the Chamberlain Network and the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism
Research participants who were surveyed in the study
Academic researchers studying gender, authoritarianism, and political violence

What action is being taken

The Trump administration has released the HHS study linking support for transgender people to political violence
The government is suing WPATH
The government is making demands for internal communications from medical groups that endorse gender-affirming care
Researchers are designing a second study to address limitations and test whether exposure to content supporting transgender people produces patterns predicted by their theory
The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism has released a full report detailing its issues with the study

Why it matters

This research matters because it could provide the Trump administration with purported scientific justification to designate support for transgender rights as a form of domestic terrorism or violent extremism, potentially leading to surveillance, investigation, or prosecution of LGBTQ+ advocates and allies. The study represents an escalation of anti-transgender rhetoric from focusing on youth sports and healthcare to broadly characterizing transgender acceptance as a threat to democracy and public safety. Experts warn this could be used to restrict civil rights far beyond the transgender community, targeting anyone with progressive political views. The involvement of a government agency (HHS) in producing and legitimizing what experts call methodologically flawed and politically biased research raises serious concerns about the politicization of science and the targeting of marginalized communities. Additionally, the study contradicts substantial evidence showing that transgender people are victims rather than perpetrators of violence, being over four times more likely than cisgender people to experience violent crime.

What's next

The authors state that "additional research questions will be addressed in subsequent analyses"
A second study with an "experimental design" is being designed to test whether exposure to content supporting transgender people produces the patterns predicted by their theory
Experts anticipate the administration may attempt to act on this report in some way, though specific actions are not detailed

Read full article from source: The 19th