Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion

October 3, 2026

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged preparing contingency plans for a potential US invasion, despite calling the risk low and highly improbable. This planning comes amid deteriorating relations under President Trump's second term, marked by global tariffs and his repeated statements about making Canada the 51st state. Military experts consider an invasion highly unlikely, pointing to the extensive defense cooperation between the two nations through NATO and NORAD, though they suggest any conflict would more likely begin with cyberwarfare rather than armed assault.

Who is affected

Canadian citizens (over 30% believe a US invasion is likely according to January polling)
Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Canadian government
President Donald Trump and the White House administration
Lt-Gen Christopher Coates and Canadian military planners
NATO member nations
Military personnel involved in joint Canada-US operations under NORAD

What action is being taken

Prime Minister Mark Carney has prepared contingency plans for a potential US invasion
The Canadian government is war gaming a potential US attack
President Trump is exerting economic pressures to obtain political aims
Canada and the US are conducting joint Arctic defense missions under NORAD

Why it matters

This represents a historic deterioration in Canada-US relations, as the two countries have been close allies and heavily integrated economically, militarily, and culturally since World War II. The situation is significant because it forces Canada to prepare for what was previously considered unthinkable—military conflict with its closest ally and neighbor—despite both nations being NATO members committed to mutual defense and conducting joint military operations through NORAD.

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC