No, Immigrants Are Not Self-Deporting En Masse

December 10, 2025

The Department of Homeland Security claims that 1. 6 million unauthorized immigrants have self-deported since January, but immigration researcher Edward Kissam argues this figure is wildly inaccurate and based on flawed data interpretation. The administration's numbers appear to come from survey response declines that more likely reflect immigrants avoiding government contact out of fear rather than actually leaving the country.

Who is affected

Unauthorized immigrants living in the United States (estimated population affected by the 15% claim)
Naturalized citizens and legal permanent residents (three-quarters of immigrants surveyed)
Latino U.S. citizens who fear detention
Immigrant families and children
About 400,000 immigrants who have actually been deported
Between 25,000 and 80,000 immigrants who have taken advantage of voluntary departure incentives
Approximately 55,000-70,000 visa overstayers
The MAGA base (as recipients of the administration's messaging)

What action is being taken

DHS is conducting deportations (approximately 400,000 to date)
ICE is carrying out detentions and workplace raids
DHS is operating the CBP Home incentives program, offering airfare and $1,000 payments for voluntary departure
Immigrants are withdrawing from civic life, avoiding churches, family outings, schools, workplaces, and government programs
Immigrants are avoiding or discontinuing participation in Medicaid, SNAP, and housing support programs
Local communities are mounting resistance to ICE
Multiple court cases challenging DHS's campaign are pending

Why it matters

This matters because the administration is using misleading statistics to claim success in its immigration enforcement policies when the data actually reflects fear-driven behavioral changes rather than mass departures. The inflated self-deportation numbers misrepresent the impact of enforcement policies and potentially mislead the public and policymakers about what is actually happening in immigrant communities. The real consequence is millions of families, including legal residents and citizens, living in fear and withdrawing from essential services, education, employment, and civic participation, which has broad social and economic implications for communities across the country.

What's next

Polling shows most Americans believe the administration's anti-immigrant crackdown has gone too far, and local resistance to ICE is growing. Multiple court cases are pending regarding whether DHS's enforcement campaign can continue. The article notes that what happens over the coming years remains uncertain, though immigrant communities are demonstrating determination to stay despite the hostile environment.

Read full article from source: The San Diego Voice & Viewpoint