The looming election Trump can't afford to lose

November 26, 2025

A special congressional election in Tennessee on December 2nd has unexpectedly become competitive despite the district being reliably Republican territory where Trump won by 22 points in 2024. Both major parties are treating the race seriously, with Democrats pouring resources into the campaign and Republicans worried about voter awareness, as economic concerns about inflation and cost of living dominate voter sentiment even in this conservative stronghold. The contest between Democrat Aftyn Behn, who is focusing on local affordability issues, and Republican Matt Van Epps, an Army veteran who secured Trump's endorsement in the primary, reveals tensions within the Republican Party as Trump's popularity sags and his policies face criticism from some conservatives.

Who is affected

Tennessee voters in the special congressional district
Republican Party Chair Scott Golden and Tennessee Republicans
Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn and Republican nominee Matt Van Epps
Former Vice-President Kamala Harris
President Donald Trump and his MAGA coalition
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
Marjorie Taylor Greene (who resigned from Congress)
Tennessee soybean farmers and cattle ranchers affected by tariffs
Low-income Tennesseans facing expiring health insurance subsidies
Local Republican supporters including Julia Timson, Shane Wattenbarger, Chelsea Rose, and Van Hilleary

What action is being taken

A special election is being held on December 2nd to fill an open congressional seat
The Democratic Party chair is holding rallies in the district
Kamala Harris is visiting campaign workers at canvassing events
Democratic and Republican campaigns are actively campaigning, with both candidates focusing messaging on economic issues
Trump is cutting tariffs on grocery items and proposing 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff rebates
Republicans are scrambling to reshape their message to focus on "affordability"
Matt Van Epps is campaigning with messaging focused on economic issues rather than cultural ones

Why it matters

This election represents a critical test of Republican electoral strength without Trump on the ballot, following disappointing midterm performances in 2018 and 2022 and recent Democratic victories in local elections. The competitiveness of a district Trump won by 22 points signals potential vulnerability in the Republican coalition and suggests economic concerns are overriding partisan loyalty even in conservative strongholds. The outcome could reveal whether Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration, and the economy are creating lasting political damage for Republicans and whether the party can successfully transition to a post-Trump era. A Democratic upset would likely trigger panic within Republican ranks ahead of next year's midterm elections and force the party to more seriously confront the electoral costs of their alignment with Trump when he's not directly on the ballot.

What's next

The special election will be held on December 2nd
Results will inform how Republicans approach next year's midterm congressional elections
Republicans will need to develop strategies for competing in a political environment where Trump is not on the ballot

Read full article from source: BBC